In a not entirely unexpected projection from a prominent Wall Street financial institution, a senior strategist at JPMorgan has put forth a forecast suggesting that Joe Biden might withdraw from the upcoming presidential race, citing health concerns.
The forecaster in question, Michael Cembalest, serves as the Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset Management. This prediction was included in his annual outlook report, covering various subjects such as the state of the US economy, market dynamics, and global risks.
Among the noteworthy surprises outlined by Cembalest for 2024 are:
- The stability of the US dollar.
- A significant antitrust case victory for the Department of Justice/Federal Trade Commission (DoJ/FTC).
- President Biden’s potential withdrawal from the race between Super Tuesday and the November election, citing health reasons, with the Democratic National Committee selecting a replacement candidate.
- Anticipation of a backlash against driverless cars.
- Broadly syndicated loan (BSL) losses surpassing private credit losses for the first time.
- Predictions of failure if Argentine dollarization is implemented.
- The Russian invasion of Ukraine expected to persist without a ceasefire in 2024.
- Despite challenges faced by US regional banks, projections indicate that their stocks will perform well in 2024 with stable or rising price-to-book values.
- Anticipation of electricity and/or natural gas outages in major US cities due to the retirement of dispatchable power generation and underinvestment in pipelines, gas storage, and winterization.
- A forecast that researchers will complete work on an inhaled COVID vaccine significantly reducing transmission.
Cembalest attributes Biden’s low approval rating, despite a job creation rate of approximately 10% since his inauguration, to the coinciding events of his inauguration with the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and the reopening of the US economy.
The strategist suggests that Biden’s health may contribute to his diminished approval rating, speculating a potential withdrawal from the race between Super Tuesday and the November election. Cembalest outlines the possibility of the Democratic National Committee selecting a replacement candidate, basing this prediction on the process of candidate replacement during primary season or around the general election.
In 2021, former White House physician Ronnie Jackson, who served under Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump, expressed concerns about Biden’s physical and mental condition. Jackson highlighted Biden’s apparent avoidance of public appearances as a significant red flag.
The report also refers to a previous prediction by The Gateway Pundit in July, suggesting Biden might step down from office following a sudden medical emergency.
