As the 2024 election cycle kicks off, President Joe Biden and his closest advisors are growing increasingly concerned about his prospects, particularly in the face of a resurgent Donald Trump.
Biden’s polling numbers have been on a downward trend for most of the past year, while Trump’s popularity has been on the rise.
However, Democrats were particularly alarmed last week when a prominent pollster conducted an in-depth analysis of a new survey on Biden’s job performance and approval rating, revealing much bleaker data than what has been reported in the media.
Revolver News, which examined pollster Richard Baris’ assessment, summarized the results of the survey as follows:
key demographic groups are not just angry with Biden; they are abandoning him in large numbers.
This is not a typical “presidential slump” that can be easily remedied with campaigning and public appearances.
Instead, it is a “CODE RED” situation in the political world, marking the complete collapse of a political figure.
The media, according to the analysis, is trying to downplay this reality.
Baris noted that the Suffolk/USAToday Poll results diverge from the norm for an incumbent president seeking re-election one year out.
Biden’s approval ratings are historically lower than those of Barack Obama (who won) and significantly lower than those of Donald Trump (who lost).
The poll also revealed that Trump is gaining support among key Democratic constituencies, particularly Hispanic voters and those under the age of 35.
However, the poll did not show gains among Black voters.
Baris emphasized that enthusiasm and voting likelihood are not the same thing, and higher turnout would benefit Trump.
He also mentioned that the polling data showed Nikki Haley surpassing Ron DeSantis in national popularity.
While some analysts believe Biden will soldier on despite his declining polling numbers, others speculate that he may withdraw from the race due to both his sagging popularity and concerns about his cognitive abilities.
Michael Cembalest, a prominent strategist at JPMorgan Chase, stated that Biden is likely to withdraw sometime between Super Tuesday (March 5) and the November election, citing health concerns.
Super Tuesday, which encompasses primary elections in over a dozen states, often serves as a crucial turning point in the nomination process.
Cembalest’s prediction stems from Biden’s declining approval ratings, despite the fact that he oversaw a period of significant job creation since taking office.
However, Cembalest noted that much of the job growth can be attributed to Americans returning to work after COVID-19 shutdowns.
Although Cembalest did not offer a specific replacement candidate, he predicted that the Democratic National Committee would select someone to fill Biden’s spot.
While Vice President Kamala Harris might seem like a natural choice, she has historically been less popular than Biden.
As the 2024 election cycle unfolds, the White House and the Democratic Party face a challenging road ahead.
Biden’s declining poll numbers and potential health concerns have raised concerns among party insiders.
The coming months will reveal how these factors shape the political landscape and whether the predictions and analysis of pollsters and strategists hold true.
