It’s a feature of our days that the Intelligence heads of the great powers have been acting in a quasi-diplomatic function, stepping out of the shadows of the world of espionage to engage in open discussion of the issues.
That applies to CIA’s director Burns, the Ukrainian Budanov, and also to Russia’s spy chief, Sergei Naryshkin.
Heading Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SRV), the current incarnation of the famous (and infamous) KBG, Naryshkin has said that Russia is ‘close to achieving all its war goals and holds the strategic initiative in all areas of the war.’
After 1,000 days of conflict, the Ukrainian defenses are crumbling, and the Western powers are looking for a way to bring the war to an end.
Naryshkin maintains contacts with governments in the West, and his comments are being interpreted as a signal that the Kremlin is ready to begin talks on a ceasefire.
IntelliNews reported:
“’The situation on the front is not in Kyiv’s favor’, Naryshkin told Razvedchik, the official publication of Russia’s foreign intelligence agency, reported Reuters. ‘The strategic initiative in all areas belongs to us, we are close to achieving our goals, while the armed forces of Ukraine are on the verge of collapse’.”
Russian Forces have gained territory faster in the last month than at any time since the start of the conflict in 2022.
The Red Army is outmanning, outgunning, and outmaneuvering the Ukrainian defenders, reportedly launching more than 6,000 drones and missiles into Ukraine, and increasing the use of its devastating Soviet-era glide bombs, now fitted with wings and a simple GPS navigation system.
“The [Russian army] is within a few kilometers of taking the strategically important town of Pokrovsk, the main logistical hub of the [Ukrainian] AFU in the Donbas. The AFU has also lost more than 40% of the territory it gained in the Kursk region during August’s incursion, said Reuters on November 22, quoting a senior Ukrainian military source.”
Kiev is short of men, money, and weapons systems.
The number of Ukrainian soldiers deserting has soared, and the recruitment program has failed to raise sufficient fresh troops.
A problem when it comes to ceasefire talks: Zelensky’s term officially expired in May, and the Russian side does not recognize him anymore.
“Naryshkin dismissed Zelensky as lacking both ‘legitimacy’ and ‘the ability to negotiate.’ […] It is not clear with whom [Russia] is willing to talk.”
Zelensky is now in favor of deploying foreign peacekeeping troops to Ukraine as a temporary security measure.
“Three main proposals for ending Russia’s war against Ukraine have been put in front of Trump by his aids, none of which involve Ukraine joining Nato: a plan by Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia General Keith Kellogg, a plan by US Vice President-elect JD Vance and a plan by former acting Trump intelligence chief Richard Grenell.
[…] Putin has said repeatedly that talks can begin but they should be in the framework of the failed Istanbul peace deal agreed in April 2022, plus they should take into account the ‘realities on the ground’. However, more recently, in what appears to be a trial balloon, leaked comments from the Kremlin suggest there is some room for negotiation over the borders of the four regions annexed by Russia last year and ‘limited territorial concessions’.”
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